No psilocybin depression NDA is accepted for FDA filing before Q1 2027; COMPASS remains pre-submission.

Predicted 2026-09-01 · Resolves 2027-03-31 · clinical · USA

70%

ORACLE CONFIDENCE

⏳ Pending

Every outcome is scored publicly in the ledger.

No company will formally submit a psilocybin-based depression drug for approval to the FDA (the US drug regulator) before the end of March 2027. COMPASS Pathways, the leading company in this space, still needs to finish collecting long-term data on how well its treatment holds up over time before it can even prepare that submission. This means no psilocybin depression pill or therapy is getting officially reviewed anytime soon.

Resolution rule: YES if, as of 2027-03-31, no company has publicly announced FDA acceptance of an NDA for a psilocybin therapy in depression. Checked via FDA press releases, COMPASS Pathways/atai IR pages, and SEC filings on 2027-03-31.

CMPS shows no imminent catalyst. Rigorous review requires durability data still maturing; COMPASS Phase 3 durability readout not yet reported. Filing readiness lags the hype.

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