Public Accountability Ledger

Oracle Accuracy Record

Every prediction the Oracle has ever issued — confidence scores, resolution dates, and real-world outcomes. No deletions. No revisions. This is the permanent record.

Live Confirmation — June 2026

On Track · In The News

"No peer-reviewed controlled trial (Phase II or higher) replicating psilocybin efficacy in Alzheimer's disease or dementia publishes results before 2027-12-31."

Issued: April 21, 2026 Confidence: 73% Category: Research Resolves: December 31, 2027 Status: Open · On Track

What the Oracle Read

The swarm identified that existing psilocybin/Alzheimer's research was clustered around early-stage trials and case reports — not the kind of powered, controlled Phase II studies that would constitute a confirmation. The 73% confidence reflects genuine uncertainty: something could break through. But the science pipeline didn't support it.

Timeline

Apr 21, 2026

Oracle issues prediction at 73% confidence — no Phase II confirmation before 2027.

Jun 2026

Viral case report: 80-year-old Alzheimer's patient regains speech after psilocybin (Frontiers in Neuroscience). Media calls it a "breakthrough." Oracle notes: this is a single case report, not a controlled trial. Prediction remains on track.

Dec 31, 2027

Resolution date. Oracle scores when the evidence is in.