Public Accountability Ledger
Every prediction the Oracle has ever issued — confidence scores, resolution dates, and real-world outcomes. No deletions. No revisions. This is the permanent record.
Live Confirmation — June 2026
"No peer-reviewed controlled trial (Phase II or higher) replicating psilocybin efficacy in Alzheimer's disease or dementia publishes results before 2027-12-31."
The swarm identified that existing psilocybin/Alzheimer's research was clustered around early-stage trials and case reports — not the kind of powered, controlled Phase II studies that would constitute a confirmation. The 73% confidence reflects genuine uncertainty: something could break through. But the science pipeline didn't support it.
Resolved Track Record — Graded Against Real-World Evidence
Each prediction is issued with a confidence score and a fixed resolution date, then adjudicated against public real-world evidence — market prices, SEC filings, or published coverage — and never back-edited. "Void" means adjudicated but too mixed to score cleanly. This ledger is honest by construction: it shows every miss, not just the hits.
Highest Confidence Calls — Oracle's Most Certain Positions
Full Predictions Archive
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