{
  "$schema": "https://ootworacle.com/schemas/accuracy.json",
  "publisher": "OOTWOracle",
  "url": "https://www.ootworacle.com/accuracy.json",
  "human_page": "https://www.ootworacle.com/accuracy.html",
  "generated_at": "2026-08-08T15:31:53+00:00",
  "data_source": "supabase-live",
  "methodology": "Each prediction is issued with a confidence score and a fixed resolve_date. Outcomes are adjudicated against public real-world evidence and never back-edited. Confirmed/wrong status is set via resolve_prediction.py. Predictions are never deleted.",
  "totals": {
    "total_predictions": 555,
    "resolved": 15,
    "confirmed": 7,
    "wrong": 8,
    "pending": 540,
    "due_for_resolution": 18
  },
  "accuracy": {
    "resolved_count": 15,
    "hit_rate_pct": 46.7,
    "brier_score": 0.3273,
    "avg_confidence_pct": 69.5,
    "high_confidence_count": 203,
    "established": true,
    "note": "7/15 resolved predictions confirmed. Brier score is calibration error (lower is better; 0 = perfect)."
  },
  "due_for_resolution": [
    {
      "title": "The psychedelic biotech sector (as proxied by PSYK ETF or equivalent index) will show no positive return from May 2026 levels through June 2, 2026, absent a confirmed FDA approval or Phase 3 trial suc",
      "category": "market",
      "confidence_pct": 61.0,
      "resolve_date": "2026-06-02"
    },
    {
      "title": "A major mainstream outlet (top-50 US or UK publication by traffic) will publish a feature conflating psilocybin cocaine use disorder trial findings with recreational microdosing trends by July 7, 2026",
      "category": "culture",
      "confidence_pct": 48.0,
      "resolve_date": "2026-07-07"
    },
    {
      "title": "Ibogaine cardiac safety concerns will materially slow or condition U.S. regulatory pathways, requiring mandatory cardiac monitoring protocols that will significantly increase deployment costs and comp",
      "category": "legislation",
      "confidence_pct": 76.0,
      "resolve_date": "2026-07-26"
    },
    {
      "title": "Fluoxetine washout standardization will be documented as adopted protocol practice across at least two Phase 3 psychedelic trials by 2026-07-30.",
      "category": "research",
      "confidence_pct": 28.0,
      "resolve_date": "2026-07-30"
    },
    {
      "title": "Ibogaine cardiac safety literature will constitute a recognized regulatory signal sufficient to require mandatory cardiac monitoring protocols in any new IND submission for ibogaine or close analogs, ",
      "category": "legislation",
      "confidence_pct": 72.0,
      "resolve_date": "2026-07-31"
    },
    {
      "title": "Any White House or federal executive-branch psychedelic research initiative announced before 2026-08-01 will be explicitly framed around veteran opioid/addiction recovery and will not name MDMA as a t",
      "category": "legislation",
      "confidence_pct": 72.0,
      "resolve_date": "2026-08-01"
    },
    {
      "title": "A major investigative piece linking ibogaine cardiac deaths specifically to veteran treatment programs will publish in a top-tier outlet before August 2026.",
      "category": "culture",
      "confidence_pct": 76.0,
      "resolve_date": "2026-08-01"
    },
    {
      "title": "Cardiac screening will be included as a mandatory requirement in at least one enacted or advanced federal ibogaine access bill or FDA guidance document by August 2026.",
      "category": "legislation",
      "confidence_pct": 44.0,
      "resolve_date": "2026-08-01"
    },
    {
      "title": "No FDA final approval of any psychedelic-assisted therapy (psilocybin, MDMA) will occur before 2026-08-02.",
      "category": "legislation",
      "confidence_pct": 97.0,
      "resolve_date": "2026-08-02"
    },
    {
      "title": "A ketamine or psychedelic clinic safety, consent, or diversion incident will surface in major US media before 2026-08-02.",
      "category": "culture",
      "confidence_pct": 65.0,
      "resolve_date": "2026-08-02"
    },
    {
      "title": "SSRI washout protocols will be formally required (via FDA mandate or sponsor-initiated amendments across at least five active trials) for MDMA and psilocybin INDs by August 2026, causing measurable en",
      "category": "legislation",
      "confidence_pct": 14.0,
      "resolve_date": "2026-08-02"
    },
    {
      "title": "No FDA approval of an ibogaine-based product by August 2026; cardiac risk keeps parent compound unapproved.",
      "category": "research",
      "confidence_pct": 98.0,
      "resolve_date": "2026-08-03"
    },
    {
      "title": "No DEA rescheduling final rule for psilocybin, MDMA, or ibogaine published by early August 2026.",
      "category": "legislation",
      "confidence_pct": 97.0,
      "resolve_date": "2026-08-03"
    },
    {
      "title": "No FDA approval of any psychedelic-assisted therapy (psilocybin, MDMA, or ibogaine) is announced by 2026-08-04.",
      "category": "legislation",
      "confidence_pct": 97.0,
      "resolve_date": "2026-08-04"
    },
    {
      "title": "A new US clinical trial studying ibogaine or an ibogaine analogue registers on ClinicalTrials.gov by 2026-08-04.",
      "category": "research",
      "confidence_pct": 40.0,
      "resolve_date": "2026-08-04"
    },
    {
      "title": "No bill named today (H.R.185 et al.) carries psychedelic access/descheduling language before the August recess; federal action waits for fall appropriations/NDAA.",
      "category": "legislation",
      "confidence_pct": 78.0,
      "resolve_date": "2026-08-07"
    },
    {
      "title": "No psychedelic-therapy provision is attached to any bill named today before the August recess; the next real window is fall appropriations/NDAA.",
      "category": "legislation",
      "confidence_pct": 75.0,
      "resolve_date": "2026-08-07"
    },
    {
      "title": "Psilocybin for cocaine use disorder will emerge as a named pipeline indication with at least two new IND filings or primary-endpoint trial amendments documented before August 7, 2026.",
      "category": "research",
      "confidence_pct": 18.0,
      "resolve_date": "2026-08-07"
    }
  ]
}