{
  "$schema": "https://ootworacle.com/schemas/accuracy.json",
  "publisher": "OOTWOracle",
  "url": "https://www.ootworacle.com/accuracy.json",
  "human_page": "https://www.ootworacle.com/accuracy.html",
  "generated_at": "2026-07-02T14:57:55+00:00",
  "data_source": "supabase-live",
  "methodology": "Each prediction is issued with a confidence score and a fixed resolve_date. Outcomes are adjudicated against public real-world evidence and never back-edited. Confirmed/wrong status is set via resolve_prediction.py. Predictions are never deleted.",
  "totals": {
    "total_predictions": 370,
    "resolved": 4,
    "confirmed": 1,
    "wrong": 3,
    "pending": 366,
    "due_for_resolution": 7
  },
  "accuracy": {
    "resolved_count": 4,
    "hit_rate_pct": 25.0,
    "brier_score": 0.4306,
    "avg_confidence_pct": 68.1,
    "high_confidence_count": 142,
    "established": true,
    "note": "1/4 resolved predictions confirmed. Brier score is calibration error (lower is better; 0 = perfect)."
  },
  "due_for_resolution": [
    {
      "title": "The psychedelic biotech sector (as proxied by PSYK ETF or equivalent index) will show no positive return from May 2026 levels through June 2, 2026, absent a confirmed FDA approval or Phase 3 trial suc",
      "category": "market",
      "confidence_pct": 61.0,
      "resolve_date": "2026-06-02"
    },
    {
      "title": "CMPS will retrace to between $12.80 and $13.40 within 7 trading days absent a formal FDA or partnership announcement.",
      "category": "market",
      "confidence_pct": 74.0,
      "resolve_date": "2026-06-10"
    },
    {
      "title": "CMPS will retrace at least 60% of its May 30 gains within 10 trading days, absent a confirmed Phase 3 data readout or partnership announcement.",
      "category": "research",
      "confidence_pct": 77.0,
      "resolve_date": "2026-06-13"
    },
    {
      "title": "CMPS stock will retrace at least 5% from its 2026-05-31 closing price within 10 trading days, absent a confirmatory catalyst (FDA meeting date announcement or partnership deal).",
      "category": "market",
      "confidence_pct": 79.0,
      "resolve_date": "2026-06-16"
    },
    {
      "title": "CMPS stock will give back at least 2.5 percentage points of its June 4, 2026 gain within 10 trading days, absent a specific FDA catalyst or partnership announcement.",
      "category": "market",
      "confidence_pct": 79.0,
      "resolve_date": "2026-06-18"
    },
    {
      "title": "MMED will retrace at least 60% of its June 3rd single-day gain within 15 trading days, absent a filed 8-K disclosing a material event.",
      "category": "market",
      "confidence_pct": 82.0,
      "resolve_date": "2026-06-24"
    },
    {
      "title": "CMPS (Compass Pathways) closes below $7.00 on at least one trading day before June 30, 2026",
      "category": "market",
      "confidence_pct": 45.0,
      "resolve_date": "2026-06-30"
    }
  ]
}