We publish these numbers even when they are small and unflattering, because a record you can't audit is marketing, not forecasting. Every prediction carries a falsifiable resolution rule at birth; a weekly resolution agent researches outcomes and writes them to a public ledger. Ambiguous calls stay pending — honesty over coverage.
As of today, Polymarket's public API returns no open markets on psilocybin, MDMA, ibogaine, or psychedelic policy — the Oracle covers questions the prediction markets don't price. The moment an overlapping market appears, it will be listed here and scored head-to-head.
What we measure: calibration, not bravado. A 70% call should come true about 70% of the time. The Brier score above tracks exactly that (lower is better; 0.25 is what always guessing "50/50" scores). As the resolved count grows, this page will add a full calibration curve.