A psilocybin-for-TRD readout posts within 10 weeks showing statistical separation from placebo on MADRS at the primary timepoint.

Predicted 2026-08-29 · Resolves 2026-11-07 · clinical · Global

55%

ORACLE CONFIDENCE

⏳ Pending

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Psilocybin (the active compound in 'magic mushrooms') is being tested in people whose depression hasn't improved with standard treatments — a condition called treatment-resistant depression, or TRD. The prediction is that by November 7, 2026, at least one research team will announce that psilocybin meaningfully reduced depression scores compared to a dummy treatment in a large trial. This would be a significant milestone for legitimizing psilocybin as a real medicine.

Resolution rule: YES if any psilocybin-for-TRD trial (COMPASS COMP360 or investigator-led) reports topline by 2026-11-07 showing statistically significant separation from placebo on MADRS at the designated primary timepoint (p<0.05). Source: sponsor press release/IR and clinicaltrials.gov. Check date: 2026-11-07. NO if no such readout is reported by that date or if reported without significant MADRS separation.

The listed depression-resistant trial is maturing and prior psilocybin TRD programs (e.g., COMPASS COMP360) have shown dose-dependent MADRS separation. Named endpoint and timepoint make this falsifiable rather than vague.

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