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Janssen's seltorexant adjunctive MDD Phase 3 posts topline showing a statistically significant primary endpoint on depressive symptoms.

Predicted 2026-08-29 · Resolves 2026-11-21 · clinical · Global
60%
ORACLE CONFIDENCE
⏳ Pending
Every outcome is scored publicly in the ledger.

Johnson & Johnson is testing a drug called seltorexant, which works by targeting the brain's wakefulness system, as an add-on treatment for people whose depression hasn't responded to standard antidepressants. The prediction is that by November 21, 2026, the company will announce that the drug meaningfully reduced depression symptoms compared to a placebo in a large late-stage trial. If that happens, it's a meaningful step toward the drug becoming available to patients.

Resolution rule: YES if J&J/Janssen reports topline data for its seltorexant adjunctive MDD Phase 3 by 2026-11-21 stating the primary depressive-symptom endpoint (e.g., MADRS change) reached statistical significance (p<0.05). Source: J&J IR/press releases and clinicaltrials.gov. Check date: 2026-11-21.

Conventional orexin-2 antagonist mechanism, well-powered registrational program, tractable blinding. Historically strong prior for a positive MADRS separation. Anchored to a named, dated readout window.

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