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The seltorexant adjunctive MDD-with-insomnia Phase 3 will post positive topline supporting a J&J NDA-track update within 10 weeks.

Predicted 2026-08-28 · Resolves 2026-11-06 · clinical · Global
60%
ORACLE CONFIDENCE
⏳ Pending
Every outcome is scored publicly in the ledger.

Johnson & Johnson is running late-stage clinical trials on a drug called seltorexant, designed to treat depression in people who also struggle with insomnia. The prediction is that the trial will announce positive results — meaning the drug worked better than placebo — by early November 2026, putting the company on track to file for FDA (the US drug regulator) approval. This matters because a drug that tackles both depression and sleep problems at once could help millions of people who don't respond well to standard antidepressants.

Resolution rule: YES if, by 2026-11-06, Johnson & Johnson publicly reports positive topline results from a Phase 3 seltorexant adjunctive MDD trial (met primary endpoint) via a J&J press release/IR page (investor.jnj.com) or its clinicaltrials.gov record posting results. Check J&J IR and clinicaltrials.gov on 2026-11-06.

Orexin antagonism has cleaner blinding than psychedelics; J&J's data discipline and the active trial signal today suggest a filing-positive readout.

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