🔮 OOTWOracle · All predictions · Odds sheet · Track record · How it works · Benchmark
Answers: Will psilocybin be FDA-approved? · Will MDMA be approved? · When will psychedelics be legal?

FDA will publicly reference functional-unblinding methodology when discussing COMPASS-class psilocybin data this fall, tempering approval expectations.

Predicted 2026-08-28 · Resolves 2026-11-15 · clinical · USA
60%
ORACLE CONFIDENCE
⏳ Pending
Every outcome is scored publicly in the ledger.

When people take psilocybin in a clinical trial, they almost always know they got the real drug — not a placebo — because the effects are so obvious. Regulators at the FDA are expected to formally flag this problem when reviewing data from COMPASS Pathways' psilocybin trials for treatment-resistant depression. This is a big deal because if patients know they got the drug, their improvement might partly come from expectation rather than the drug itself, making results harder to trust.

Resolution rule: YES if, by 2026-11-15, an FDA official statement, advisory committee document, briefing document, or public presentation explicitly references functional unblinding / expectancy bias in the context of psilocybin (COMPASS/COMP360-class) TRD data. Verified via fda.gov (advisory committee materials, guidance, or official remarks). Check on 2026-11-15.

Regulators must address expectancy bias before any classic psychedelic label; the TRD readouts force the issue.

5 new falsifiable predictions, every day at 12:05 PM ET.
Get tomorrow's Oracle →
Marketing byAN
Sacred 5-MeO-DMT Ceremonies · Miami
The Oldest Prayer, Remembered

Join our community — a free weekly Zoom circle with a master facilitator. Come sit with us first; the rest reveals itself.

Join the Free Weekly Circle →