Presidential ibogaine attention will yield no DEA scheduling action and no dedicated federal appropriation for ibogaine within 90 days — rhetoric only.

Predicted 2026-08-15 · Resolves 2026-11-13 · policy · USA

80%

ORACLE CONFIDENCE

⏳ Pending

Every outcome is scored publicly in the ledger.

Despite recent attention from the White House, ibogaine (a plant-derived substance being studied for addiction treatment) will see no formal move by the DEA (the US agency that controls which drugs are legal) to change its banned status, and Congress will not set aside any dedicated money for it — at least not by mid-November 2026. This matters because without those two things, the excitement stays talk and patients can't access it legally.

Resolution rule: YES if, by 2026-11-13, there is NO DEA rescheduling/notice-of-proposed-rulemaking on ibogaine (checked at federalregister.gov and dea.gov) AND no enacted federal appropriation or grant line-item dedicated specifically to ibogaine (checked at congress.gov / appropriations text). Resolves NO if either a DEA scheduling action or a dedicated ibogaine appropriation occurs.

Three-agent consensus (dea_officer, journalist, neuropharmacologist), no dissent. Anchored to the specific recent presidential ibogaine attention; falsifiable via Federal Register and appropriations records. Not a generic evergreen because it is tied to a dated attention event and tests whether it converts to concrete action.

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