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The subcutaneous esketamine KAP trial, being non-randomized, will publish safety/tolerability-only conclusions with no efficacy claim FDA would accept for a label change by Q4 2026.

Predicted 2026-08-13 · Resolves 2026-11-30 · clinical · USA
74%
ORACLE CONFIDENCE
⏳ Pending
Every outcome is scored publicly in the ledger.

A clinical trial testing esketamine (a ketamine-related drug) injected under the skin — rather than sprayed in the nose — ran without random assignment of patients to groups. That design flaw means the results can only tell us the drug seems tolerable, not whether it actually works better than nothing. The US drug regulator (FDA) won't use this kind of study to update the drug's approved uses.

Non-randomized preliminary designs cannot support causal efficacy. My division treats these as hypothesis-generating, not actionable — reform must be earned through controlled data.

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