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The ibogaine case report yields no DEA scheduling accommodation and no cleared expanded-access pathway within 12 weeks; cardiac-risk framing dominates any official response.

Predicted 2026-08-04 · Resolves 2026-10-27 · policy · USA
70%
ORACLE CONFIDENCE
⏳ Pending
Every outcome is scored publicly in the ledger.

Ibogaine is currently a Schedule I substance in the US — the most restricted category, meaning the government considers it to have no accepted medical use and high abuse potential. One published patient story won't prompt the DEA (the US Drug Enforcement Administration) to loosen that classification, and the FDA won't open a formal compassionate-use program (a special pathway letting seriously ill patients try unapproved drugs) based on a single anecdote. Ibogaine's history of causing fatal heart problems gives regulators every reason to move slowly.

Resolution rule: YES if, by 2026-10-27, no FDA expanded-access (compassionate-use) program for ibogaine is publicly listed and no DEA Federal Register notice altering ibogaine's scheduling or granting a research/access accommodation appears. Check federalregister.gov (search: ibogaine) and clinicaltrials.gov expanded-access entries. Resolves NO if either occurs.

One anecdote doesn't move Schedule I. Ibogaine's fatality record gives us every reason to hold the line on controlled access.

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