COMPASS Pathways' psilocybin-MDD program produces no FDA filing or breakthrough-status update within 10 weeks; CMPS's 4.2% pop is not accompanied by any regulatory milestone.

Predicted 2026-08-04 · Resolves 2026-10-13 · clinical · USA

70%

ORACLE CONFIDENCE

⏳ Pending

Every outcome is scored publicly in the ledger.

COMPASS Pathways is testing a synthetic psilocybin pill called COMP360 for people with hard-to-treat depression. A recent jump in their stock price wasn't driven by any real news from regulators — it was based on general excitement. Between now and October 13, 2026, the company is not expected to submit their drug for official US approval or announce any new special status from the FDA that would fast-track their program.

Resolution rule: YES if, between 2026-08-04 and 2026-10-13, COMPASS Pathways (ticker CMPS) issues no press release/IR announcement of an FDA filing (NDA/BLA submission) or new/updated Breakthrough Therapy designation for its psilocybin (COMP360) MDD program. Check COMPASS IR page (ir.compasspathways.com/news-releases) and FDA breakthrough tracker. Resolves NO if any such milestone is announced by 2026-10-13.

No FDA psychedelic decisions signaled today. CMPS moved on sentiment, not de-risked catalyst. My review calendar has no near-term psilocybin action.

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