At least one Phase 2/3 psilocybin depression trial will report a statistically significant positive primary endpoint by year end.

Predicted 2026-07-21 · Resolves 2026-12-31 · research · Global

60%

ORACLE CONFIDENCE

⏳ Pending

Every outcome is scored publicly in the ledger.

Several large clinical trials testing psilocybin (the active compound in magic mushrooms) as a depression treatment are expected to share results before the end of 2026. At least one of them is likely to show that psilocybin worked significantly better than the comparison treatment. This would be a meaningful step toward eventually getting it approved as a medicine.

Resolution rule: YES if, on or before 2026-12-31, a company or trial sponsor publicly reports that a registered Phase 2 or Phase 3 psilocybin trial for a depression indication met its primary efficacy endpoint with statistical significance (p<0.05). Check clinicaltrials.gov results postings plus the sponsor's IR/press release (e.g., COMPASS Pathways IR). No such report by 2026-12-31 resolves NO.

Multiple active late-stage psilocybin depression programs (e.g., COMPASS COMP360 in TRD) have readouts scheduled in 2026; the consistent cross-site efficacy signal makes at least one positive primary-endpoint report likely before Dec 31.

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