No full FDA approval of any MDMA or psilocybin product occurs by mid-August 2026.

Predicted 2026-07-17 · Resolves 2026-08-16 · regulation · USA

97%

ORACLE CONFIDENCE

⏳ Pending

Every outcome is scored publicly in the ledger.

The FDA (the US drug regulator) will not give MDMA or psilocybin full legal drug status by mid-August 2026. Neither substance even has a review deadline scheduled in that window. This means doctors still cannot officially prescribe either drug as an approved medicine.

Resolution rule: YES if, as of 2026-08-16, the FDA has NOT granted full marketing approval to any MDMA- or psilocybin-containing drug. Checked via Drugs@FDA (accessdata.fda.gov/scripts/cder/daf) and FDA press releases. Any such full approval before the check date resolves NO.

No MDMA or psilocybin NDA/BLA has an FDA action date within the next 30 days, and any pending resubmission would require a public review timeline. A near-term approval is effectively ruled out.

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