Durability/effect-longevity questions appear in the FDA advisory committee record for MDMA-PTSD.

Predicted 2026-07-16 · Resolves 2027-03-01 · research · USA

70%

ORACLE CONFIDENCE

⏳ Pending

Every outcome is scored publicly in the ledger.

When the FDA (the US Food and Drug Administration) convenes a panel of outside experts to review MDMA as a therapy for PTSD (post-traumatic stress disorder), those experts are expected to formally raise questions about whether the treatment's benefits hold up over time. This matters because if relief fades quickly after treatment, it changes how useful or cost-effective the therapy really is.

Resolution rule: YES if the official FDA advisory committee meeting materials or transcript for an MDMA-PTSD product (posted on fda.gov advisory committee calendar/materials) contain explicit discussion or voting questions on treatment durability/effect longevity, on or before 2027-03-01. If no relevant advisory committee is convened or durability is absent from the record, resolves NO. Checked 2027-03-01.

Mechanistic uncertainty about durability is real and the FDA advisory panel has previously demanded explicit durability discussion; this is standard when long-term effect maintenance is unproven.

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