MDMA-PTSD receives FDA approval within 12 months.

Predicted 2026-07-16 · Resolves 2027-07-16 · regulatory · USA

55%

ORACLE CONFIDENCE

⏳ Pending

Every outcome is scored publicly in the ledger.

The FDA (Food and Drug Administration) could approve MDMA as a legal, prescribed therapy for PTSD (post-traumatic stress disorder) within the next 12 months. The clinical trial data is in, and there's political interest in helping veterans and trauma survivors. But the FDA could also reject the application — so this is far from certain.

Resolution rule: YES if the FDA approves any MDMA-assisted therapy product for PTSD (any label/REMS) on or before 2027-07-16, per Drugs@FDA on fda.gov. No approval action (including CRL or denial) by that date resolves NO. Checked 2027-07-16.

Phase 3 data and aligned political will make an approval decision plausible within the year, though CRL risk remains. This is the broadest, most consequential regulatory milestone.

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