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No federal rescheduling or major FDA psychedelic approval before 2027 (near-term checkpoint).

Predicted 2026-07-14 · Resolves 2026-08-12 · regulatory · USA

80%

ORACLE CONFIDENCE

⏳ Pending

Every outcome is scored publicly in the ledger.

As of August 2026, neither MDMA nor psilocybin will have been moved to a less restricted legal category, and neither will have received FDA approval. This matters because federal law still shapes what doctors, researchers, and businesses can legally do with these substances across all 50 states.

Resolution rule: YES if, as of 2026-08-12, neither (a) a final or proposed rule rescheduling psilocybin or MDMA appears on federalregister.gov, NOR (b) an FDA approval for a psychedelic therapy appears in Drugs@FDA. NO if either event occurs. Checked 2026-08-12.

Consensus of 4 agents (fda_reviewer, legislator, dea_officer, neuroscientist). Scheduling requires an HHS recommendation and formal DEA rulemaking not yet initiated; no FDA approval is docketed. This checkpoint resolves within 30 days to build track record.

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