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As of mid-August 2026, no peer-reviewed Phase 3 (randomized, adequately powered) efficacy result for psilocybin in bipolar II or anorexia is published.

Predicted 2026-07-14 · Resolves 2026-08-13 · research · Global
75%
ORACLE CONFIDENCE
⏳ Pending
Every outcome is scored publicly in the ledger.

By mid-August 2026, there will likely be no large, rigorous clinical trial results published showing whether psilocybin actually works for bipolar II disorder or anorexia nervosa. The studies done so far have been small and exploratory — more like checking whether it's safe and feasible to run a trial, not proving the drug works. Big, definitive trials in these conditions haven't even gotten close to finishing.

Resolution rule: YES if, as of 2026-08-13, a PubMed (pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov) search returns NO published randomized controlled Phase 3 psilocybin efficacy trial for bipolar II disorder or anorexia nervosa, corroborated by clinicaltrials.gov showing no such trial with posted Phase 3 results. NO if such a publication/result exists. Checked 2026-08-13.

Existing bipolar II and anorexia psilocybin data are single-arm/open-label feasibility studies that cannot establish efficacy. No registered Phase 3 trials in these indications are near readout, so near-term the evidence base stays preliminary.

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