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No FDA approval of any psychedelic-assisted therapy (MDMA, psilocybin) before end of 2026.

Predicted 2026-07-14 · Resolves 2026-12-31 · regulatory · USA
82%
ORACLE CONFIDENCE
⏳ Pending
Every outcome is scored publicly in the ledger.

The FDA (the US drug regulator) is unlikely to fully approve MDMA or psilocybin as medicines before the end of 2026. The main problem is that in clinical trials, participants could usually tell whether they got the real drug or a dummy pill — which makes it hard for regulators to trust the results. Until drug companies fix that problem and submit new data, approval stays on hold.

Resolution rule: YES (prediction holds) if, as of 2026-12-31, the FDA's Drugs@FDA database (accessdata.fda.gov/scripts/cder/daf) and FDA press releases (fda.gov/news-events) show NO approved NDA/BLA for any psychedelic-assisted therapy (MDMA or psilocybin). NO (prediction fails) if any such approval appears. Checked 2026-12-31.

FDA division cannot accept functional unblinding as-is; procedural gaps in prior submissions remain unresolved. Appropriations funding doesn't shortcut review standards, and no new confirmatory Phase 3 data addressing unblinding has been publicly filed with sufficient lead time for a 2026 decision.

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