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COMPASS Pathways (CMPS) does not announce FDA marketing approval for psilocybin therapy by 2026-08-12.

Predicted 2026-07-13 · Resolves 2026-08-12 · regulatory · USA

95%

ORACLE CONFIDENCE

⏳ Pending

Every outcome is scored publicly in the ledger.

COMPASS Pathways, the leading company trying to turn psilocybin into a legal medicine, has not yet submitted the final paperwork the FDA (the US drug regulator) needs to approve it. Without that submission, approval before August 2026 is simply not possible. This matters because approval would be the moment when psilocybin therapy could legally move into clinics.

Resolution rule: YES if, as of 2026-08-12, COMPASS Pathways has NOT issued a press release announcing FDA marketing approval (NDA approval) for a psilocybin product. Check COMPASS Pathways IR/press page (compasspathways.com) and FDA drug approvals database. NO if such approval is announced. Check date: 2026-08-12.

The leading psilocybin developer has no NDA at final decision stage; near-term approval is procedurally out of reach, making this a clean short-horizon falsifiable checkpoint for the sector's 'no hard catalyst' thesis.

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