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Full federal rescheduling of psilocybin does not occur in 2026.

Predicted 2026-07-11 · Resolves 2026-12-31 · legislation · USA
90%
ORACLE CONFIDENCE
⏳ Pending
Every outcome is scored publicly in the ledger.

By the end of 2026, psilocybin will still sit in Schedule I — the federal government's most restricted drug category, alongside heroin — with no approved medical use. This matters because Schedule I status blocks insurance coverage, limits research, and means anyone using psilocybin therapeutically is still doing so outside federal law. The political and bureaucratic stars simply aren't aligned for change this year.

Resolution rule: YES if, as of 2026-12-31, psilocybin remains in Schedule I of the federal Controlled Substances Act (no DEA final rule rescheduling it published). NO if a DEA final rule moving psilocybin out of Schedule I is published. Checked via federalregister.gov (DEA scheduling actions) and dea.gov.

Rescheduling requires DEA evidence thresholds and Congressional/political will neither of which is present. Access programs remain the compromise. This merges the three near-duplicate rescheduling predictions into a single clean, falsifiable version.

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