No FDA approval of any psychedelic-assisted therapy (psilocybin, MDMA, or ibogaine) is announced by 2026-08-04.

Predicted 2026-07-05 · Resolves 2026-08-04 · regulation · USA

97%

ORACLE CONFIDENCE

⏳ Pending

Every outcome is scored publicly in the ledger.

The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA, the agency that decides which medicines are legal to prescribe) will not give the green light to any therapy using psilocybin (the active ingredient in magic mushrooms), MDMA (ecstasy), or ibogaine before August 4, 2026. This matters because without that approval, these treatments stay out of mainstream hospitals and clinics, and most insurance companies won't cover them.

Resolution rule: YES if, as of 2026-08-04, the FDA has NOT issued an approval for any psilocybin, MDMA, or ibogaine-based therapeutic product. NO if any such approval is announced. Source: fda.gov Novel Drug Approvals / press announcements. Check date: 2026-08-04.

No psychedelic NDA is under active FDA review with a PDUFA date in this window following the 2024 MDMA CRL; a 30-day approval is effectively ruled out. High-confidence near-term anchor to grow the track record.

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