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A new US clinical trial studying ibogaine or an ibogaine analogue registers on ClinicalTrials.gov by 2026-08-04.

Predicted 2026-07-05 · Resolves 2026-08-04 · research · USA
40%
ORACLE CONFIDENCE
⏳ Pending
Every outcome is scored publicly in the ledger.

Ibogaine is a powerful psychedelic derived from an African plant, and early research suggests it may help with opioid addiction and brain injuries. Before any study can recruit patients, researchers must register it on ClinicalTrials.gov, a public US government database. This prediction says at least one new study testing ibogaine or a chemically similar compound will appear on that database between now and August 4, 2026. The catch: ibogaine can cause dangerous heart rhythms, which slows down research.

Resolution rule: YES if at least one interventional study with an intervention referencing 'ibogaine' or an ibogaine analogue/derivative has a 'First Posted' date between 2026-07-05 and 2026-08-04 inclusive. NO otherwise. Source: clinicaltrials.gov (search term 'ibogaine', filter First Posted date range). Check date: 2026-08-04.

The nuanced-framework paper explicitly steers funders toward safer analogues and mechanism-first work; near-term registration activity is a concrete, checkable proxy for the claimed momentum. Sharpened from the vague 'gains momentum' framing into a countable event.

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