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No federal psychedelic rescheduling in 2026; Schedule I posture and incrementalism hold.

Predicted 2026-07-04 · Resolves 2026-12-31 · legislation · USA

85%

ORACLE CONFIDENCE

⏳ Pending

Every outcome is scored publicly in the ledger.

At the federal level, these three substances will remain in the most restricted drug category through the end of 2026. Neither Congress nor the DEA is actively moving to change this. States like Oregon and Colorado have made their own rules, but federal law — which affects things like banking, insurance, and interstate commerce — stays the same.

Resolution rule: YES if, as of 2026-12-31, psilocybin, MDMA, and ibogaine all remain in Schedule I federally — i.e. no DEA final rule rescheduling any of them has been published in the Federal Register (federalregister.gov, DEA docket) AND no enacted federal statute (congress.gov) has moved any of them out of Schedule I. NO if any of the three is federally rescheduled via published final rule or enacted law by that date. Source: federalregister.gov and congress.gov. Check date: 2026-12-31.

Consensus of 3 agents (dea_officer, legislator, fda_reviewer) against 1 dissenter. Enforcement politics, diversion concerns, and institutional inertia dominate; no serious federal rescheduling bill is on the current calendar. Rescheduling of a Schedule I substance requires either DEA administrative action (a published final rule) or an act of Congress, neither of which is in motion.

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