No FDA approval of an ibogaine-based product by August 2026; cardiac risk keeps parent compound unapproved.

Predicted 2026-07-04 · Resolves 2026-08-03 · research · USA

98%

ORACLE CONFIDENCE

⏳ Pending

Every outcome is scored publicly in the ledger.

Ibogaine is a powerful plant-based drug being studied for addiction treatment, but it can cause dangerous heart rhythm problems. The FDA (the US drug regulator) won't approve any drug it considers too risky without strong safety evidence, and that evidence doesn't exist yet. This means people cannot legally access ibogaine as an approved medicine in the US anytime soon.

Resolution rule: YES if no ibogaine or ibogaine-derivative drug product has received FDA marketing approval (NDA/BLA) by 2026-08-03. NO if the FDA approvals database lists any newly approved ibogaine-based product in that window. Source: accessdata.fda.gov (Drugs@FDA) and fda.gov news. Check date: 2026-08-03.

Ibogaine's QT-prolongation and cardiotoxicity make near-term FDA approval implausible; current activity is limited to derivative research and early-phase work. No NDA decision is pending. Approval would appear on the FDA approvals database.

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