🔮 OOTWOracle · All predictions · Odds sheet · Track record · Benchmark

No full FDA approval of psilocybin or MDMA for any indication during calendar year 2026.

Predicted 2026-06-30 · Resolves 2026-12-31 · regulatory · USA
76%
ORACLE CONFIDENCE
⏳ Pending
Every outcome is scored publicly in the ledger.

The FDA (the US drug regulator) will not fully approve psilocybin (magic mushroom compound) or MDMA (the active ingredient in ecstasy) as a medicine in 2026. Approval requires years of safety reviews, and the FDA still has unresolved questions about how to monitor patients using these drugs safely. This means no one will be able to get a prescription for these substances at a regular pharmacy in 2026.

Consensus of four agents (fda_reviewer, journalist, neuroscientist, dea_officer) with one dissent. No NDA acceptance or PDUFA date appears in current signals; REMS design and durability questions require additional review cycles. The 'within months' coverage consistently outruns regulatory reality.

5 new falsifiable predictions, every day at 12:05 PM ET.
Get tomorrow's Oracle →