🔮 OOTWOracle · All predictions · Odds sheet · Track record · Benchmark

Psilocybin Phase 3 topline hits its primary endpoint in 2026

Predicted 2026-06-27 · Resolves 2026-12-31 · research · USA
70%
ORACLE CONFIDENCE
⏳ Pending
Every outcome is scored publicly in the ledger.

Compass Pathways' large clinical trial is testing whether a synthetic psilocybin pill can treat depression, and it's expected to hit its main goal — showing the drug works better than a placebo. The trial is nearly finished, the treatment already got a special 'promising' flag from the FDA, and earlier smaller studies showed positive results. If it succeeds, it's a major milestone for turning a psychedelic into a legitimate medicine.

The trial is ~86% complete with a breakthrough designation and prior supportive Phase 2 data, making statistical success on the primary endpoint the modal outcome even before regulatory interpretation.

5 new falsifiable predictions, every day at 12:05 PM ET.
Get tomorrow's Oracle →