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FDA will require at least one additional confirmatory MDMA-PTSD trial before granting any approval

Predicted 2026-06-16 · Resolves 2026-12-31 · regulation · USA
72%
ORACLE CONFIDENCE
⏳ Pending
Every outcome is scored publicly in the ledger.

In 2024, the FDA rejected the first application to approve MDMA-assisted therapy for PTSD (post-traumatic stress disorder), raising concerns about how the studies were run and whether participants could tell if they got the drug or a fake pill — which can skew results. The FDA is now expected to require a brand-new, large-scale clinical trial before it will reconsider approval. This means patients hoping for a legal MDMA therapy option are likely years away from getting one.

Functional unblinding and safety-monitoring concerns from the 2024 CRL remain unresolved. The agency's precedent of demanding adequate, well-controlled confirmatory data makes approval without a new trial improbable. Resolves cleanly: either FDA issues a requirement/CRL citing confirmatory data or approves outright.

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