No standalone bill to change federal psychedelic drug laws will get a full vote in the US Congress in 2026. Instead, any small wins will be hidden inside giant must-pass bills like the military budget or veterans' funding. This matters because it means sweeping federal change stays off the table for at least another year.
Merged with the duplicate consensus prediction (5 supporting agents total across both versions; 1 dissent). The floor calendar is consumed by Iran, appropriations, and parochial bills, leaving no slot for standalone Schedule I reform. Veteran-framed riders remain viable because they give purple-district members political cover. Falsifiable: resolves NO if any standalone psychedelic bill (e.g., a psilocybin rescheduling or breakthrough-access bill) gets a recorded floor vote in either chamber by 12/31. Confidence held near the consensus midpoint of the two source predictions; 0.83 was slightly aggressive for a full-year negative claim with six months remaining.