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No federal rescheduling (final rule or interim final rule) of psilocybin, MDMA, or ibogaine occurs in calendar year 2026

Predicted 2026-06-10 · Resolves 2026-12-31 · regulation · USA
91%
ORACLE CONFIDENCE
⏳ Pending
Every outcome is scored publicly in the ledger.

The US government will not change the legal status of these three drugs in 2026. For this to happen, the FDA (the US drug regulator) would first need to approve one of them as a medicine — and none are approved yet. The bureaucratic process alone takes well over a year even after someone kicks it off, and nobody has.

Rescheduling has historically followed FDA approval of a marketed product, and no psilocybin, MDMA, or ibogaine product holds FDA approval as of mid-2026 (Lykos's MDMA application received a CRL in 2024). Even an expedited administrative rescheduling process takes 12+ months from initiation, and none has been initiated. Five-agent consensus with one dissent. Confidence raised from 0.85: the procedural runway alone makes 2026 rescheduling nearly impossible. Resolution criteria: resolves YES if no DEA final or interim final rule moving any of these three substances off Schedule I is published in the Federal Register by 2026-12-31.

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