Ketamine infrastructure equities will outperform the XBI (SPDR S&P Biotech ETF) on a total return basis through Q4 2026

Ketamine is already approved and clinics are already operating profitably. Newer psychedelic companies are still waiting for FDA approval and burning cash on trials. Because ketamine has proven revenue and low regulatory risk, investors should get better returns from ketamine-focused companies than from the broader biotech sector. This matters because it shows where smart money is moving.

Three agents (investor, neuropharmacologist, fda_reviewer) converge: ketamine has approved revenue, clinic infrastructure, and no regulatory overhang — speculative psychedelic biotech has all three risks active simultaneously. The comparison benchmark (XBI) makes this falsifiable and market-anchored rather than a vague 'outperform' claim. Dissenting agents argue pipeline optionality in speculative names, but optionality arguments historically underperform in rising rate / risk-off environments. Resolve date tightened to Dec 31, 2026 for clean annual comparison.