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No psychedelic substance is rescheduled from Schedule I by DEA in calendar year 2026.

Predicted 2026-06-08 · Resolves 2026-12-31 · regulation · USA
80%
ORACLE CONFIDENCE
⏳ Pending
Every outcome is scored publicly in the ledger.

The DEA (US Drug Enforcement Administration) controls whether drugs stay illegal or get reclassified—and they operate separately from the FDA (the US drug regulator) that approves medicines. Even if the FDA says a psychedelic medicine is safe and works, the DEA has to independently decide to move it to a lower schedule, a process that takes months or years. This matters because it means legal prescription use stays blocked even if the FDA green-lights it.

DEA retains independent scheduling authority separate from FDA approval. Under the current administration, DEA leadership has shown no appetite for rescheduling psychedelics. Even if FDA issues a positive NDA decision on MDMA or psilocybin, DEA's separate rescheduling process takes months to years and requires its own finding. Historical precedent: DEA delayed marijuana rescheduling for decades despite HHS recommendations. Four agents converge on this outcome; two dissent but on advocacy grounds rather than procedural analysis. Confidence slightly trimmed from 0.82 to reflect non-zero probability of an emergency or expedited action under political pressure.

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