🔮 OOTWOracle · All predictions · Odds sheet · Track record · Benchmark

Psilocybin will not receive FDA approval for any indication before 2028-09-30.

Predicted 2026-06-05 · Resolves 2028-09-30 · regulation · USA
81%
ORACLE CONFIDENCE
⏳ Pending
Every outcome is scored publicly in the ledger.

Psilocybin (the active compound in magic mushrooms) won't receive FDA approval until at least late 2028. This matters because it extends the wait for people with treatment-resistant depression or other conditions who are counting on legal medical access.

No psilocybin NDA is currently on file as of mid-2026. Compass Pathways and Usona are in Phase 3; typical NDA review adds 12–18 months post-submission. Even an optimistic Phase 3 completion by end-2026 implies NDA filing in mid-2027 at earliest, with PDUFA date in late 2028. FDA's post-MDMA posture increases scrutiny probability. This prediction is falsifiable: it resolves YES if FDA approves any psilocybin NDA before 2028-09-30, NO otherwise.

5 new falsifiable predictions, every day at 12:05 PM ET.
Get tomorrow's Oracle →