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No psychedelic compound will receive FDA approval in calendar year 2026.

Predicted 2026-06-05 · Resolves 2026-12-31 · regulation · USA
93%
ORACLE CONFIDENCE
⏳ Pending
Every outcome is scored publicly in the ledger.

The FDA (the US drug regulator) won't approve any psychedelic compound for medical use during 2026. This matters because it means patients looking for legal, regulated psychedelic therapy still won't have that option, and companies betting on 2026 approvals will face delays.

The MDMA NDA remains stalled following the June 2024 AdCom rejection and Lykos's subsequent struggles. No psilocybin NDA is currently filed. FDA's Psychedelic Drugs division has signaled it requires complete Phase 3 data packages with long-term follow-up before approval. Pipeline timelines, CMC requirements, and the agency's post-MDMA conservatism make a 2026 approval essentially impossible. Resolves cleanly on 2026-12-31 by checking FDA approval database.

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