🔮 OOTWOracle · All predictions · Odds sheet · Track record · Benchmark

Federal rescheduling of psilocybin will not occur before January 2028, as no completed Phase 3 NDA submission exists and DEA scheduling timelines preclude earlier action.

Predicted 2026-05-30 · Resolves 2028-01-01 · regulation · USA
82%
ORACLE CONFIDENCE
⏳ Pending
Every outcome is scored publicly in the ledger.

Psilocybin (the active ingredient in magic mushrooms) is currently a Schedule I drug, meaning the US government says it has no medical use. For that to change, a drug company has to finish late-stage human trials, submit the results to the FDA (the US drug regulator), the FDA has to approve it, and then the DEA (the drug enforcement agency) has to officially move it to a less restricted category. Right now, no company has finished those trials yet, so the earliest this could realistically happen is 2028.

Unlike MDMA (which has completed Phase 3 trials), psilocybin lacks an NDA submission to FDA as of May 2026. Without NDA submission, FDA cannot issue scheduling recommendation to DEA, and DEA cannot initiate rescheduling. Even optimistic Phase 3 completion timelines for Compass Pathways or Usona push NDA submission to late 2026 at earliest, making January 2028 rescheduling a hard floor, not a soft one. Distinct from the MDMA prediction and more structurally grounded.

5 new falsifiable predictions, every day at 12:05 PM ET.
Get tomorrow's Oracle →