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MDMA-assisted therapy will not receive FDA approval in 2026; any NDA re-engagement will result in a resubmission pathway requiring additional safety data.

Predicted 2026-05-27 · Resolves 2026-12-31 · regulatory · USA
82%
ORACLE CONFIDENCE
⏳ Pending
Every outcome is scored publicly in the ledger.

The FDA rejected MDMA-assisted therapy in 2024 because the research had serious problems—like therapists knowing who got the real drug. The company would need to run a new, better-designed study to reapply. Without that work already underway, approval this year is extremely unlikely.

No new NDA has been filed with adequate safety supplements as of May 2026. The FDA's Complete Response Letter from 2024 cited fundamental deficiencies in trial design and safety data. Political pressure from veterans advocacy groups is insufficient to override scientific review standards. The FDA's advisory committee voted against approval 9-2 in 2024, creating a high bar for reversal. Without a completed additional trial or robust reanalysis addressing the functional unblinding and abuse liability concerns, approval in 2026 is implausible.

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