The U.S. federal government will keep psilocybin classified as Schedule I (most dangerous, no medical use) through the end of 2028. This matters because even if your state allows it, federal law still applies — you can still face federal charges, and banks won't touch businesses selling it. Moving psilocybin to a lower schedule requires the FDA (the U.S. drug regulator) to approve it as medicine first, then the DEA (the federal drug enforcement agency) to officially change its category, a process that takes years even after FDA approval.
Federal rescheduling requires an FDA-approved NDA triggering a DEA scheduling review — no psilocybin NDA has been approved or is imminently expected. The procedural queue (FDA recommendation → DEA rulemaking → public comment period) alone takes 18-24+ months from any NDA approval. DEA has demonstrated no proactive institutional appetite for rescheduling absent a formal FDA trigger. State-level legalization (Oregon, Colorado) creates political pressure but no legal mechanism forcing federal action. Confidence is high given the concrete procedural barriers, not merely political resistance.