The number of identifiable US-based or Mexico/Caribbean-based retreats explicitly marketing to US veterans for ibogaine treatment will be at least 40% higher than current baseline by 2027-05-21

The number of treatment retreats in the US and nearby countries (Mexico, Caribbean islands) that explicitly market ibogaine to US veterans will jump by at least 40%. Veterans hear about positive results from other vets through social media and informal networks, and many don't want to wait for the slow FDA approval process. This matters because unregulated retreats have no safety oversight.

Demand from veterans is inelastic when the alternative is continued suicidality and treatment-resistant PTSD. Stanford cohort outcomes circulate rapidly through veteran social networks (Reddit, Facebook groups, Task Force Delta communications). Regulatory inaction does not suppress demand — it redirects it to unregulated providers. The prediction is operationalized as a 40% increase (not 'doubling') to account for measurement uncertainty in a gray market. Falsifiable via investigative journalism counts, MAPS tracking, or harm reduction organization databases. Key uncertainty: baseline count is itself uncertain.