Someone will die at an ibogaine retreat that operates without FDA oversight, and that death will make national news and spark a congressional hearing. Ibogaine can cause serious heart problems, and many retreats don't have cardiac monitoring. Veterans seeking treatment have additional heart risks from injuries and medication use. When a high-profile death occurs, Congress will demand answers about why this treatment isn't regulated.
Gray-market ibogaine retreats are expanding without cardiac monitoring infrastructure. Ibogaine has a documented cardiac fatality rate even in supervised clinical settings. The Stanford veteran cohort data is accelerating demand in a high-risk population with comorbid cardiac risk factors from TBI and chronic NSAID/stimulant use. A fatality is not a question of if but when given case volume. Congressional hearings are the predictable political response. Falsifiable: a named fatality covered by a national outlet (NYT, WaPo, major TV network) and a scheduled or completed congressional hearing within 12 months. Confidence reduced from consensus estimate due to difficulty verifying 'gray-market' attribution and hearing scheduling uncertainty.