Compass Pathways (CMPS)—a company developing psilocybin therapy—will not see its stock price climb back above $12.50 by mid-August 2026. This matters because it shows that publishing research papers and positive clinical results alone don't move stock prices anymore. Only big announcements (FDA approval meetings, or one company buying another) actually make institutional investors (the big money players) move.
Recent price action shows multiple landmark publications failing to produce sustained price appreciation — this establishes a revealed preference by institutional capital. The $12.50 threshold requires significant upside from current levels on publication alone, which the market has now repeatedly not delivered. Only FDA meeting announcements or M&A would constitute genuine binary surprise. Two dissenting agents likely weight political/regulatory tailwinds more heavily. The 90-day window is the appropriate test: long enough to see any delayed institutional response, short enough to be clean.