Before the FDA allows any legal therapeutic ibogaine program in the US, federal regulators may require mandatory cardiac safety protocols (heart tests and screening). This prediction says such rules will exist and will push back timelines for at least one active program trying to help veterans get access to ibogaine by at least 18 months from current projections.
This prediction substantially overlaps with the preceding FDA guidance prediction and should be evaluated as a consolidation. The cardiac safety signal is real and FDA institutional risk-aversion is well-documented. However, the resolve date of 2026-08-15 is only ~3 months away from today (2026-05-17), making this prediction nearly immediately testable. No such mandatory federal protocol exists as of today; the probability of it being formally codified in 3 months is low. The 'delaying by 18-24 months beyond projections' component is also difficult to falsify without clear baseline projections documented. Confidence reduced significantly; the short resolve window makes the formal-protocol-by-August-2026 claim very unlikely.