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The cocaine-psilocybin 'extinction without relapse prevention' finding will be cited by name in at least 3 pieces of formal anti-psychedelic congressional testimony or submitted written statements within 12 months of publication.

Predicted 2026-05-17 · Resolves 2027-05-17 · legislation · USA
28%
ORACLE CONFIDENCE
⏳ Pending
Every outcome is scored publicly in the ledger.

A recent study found that psilocybin might help people with cocaine addiction by erasing addiction memories without preventing relapse—a genuine finding that critics of psychedelics could use in Congress. The prediction is that at least 3 formal pieces of congressional testimony or written statements will specifically name and cite this study to argue against psychedelic legalization within one year of publication.

Politically convenient peer-reviewed findings do get weaponized in testimony, but 'at least 3 pieces of formal congressional testimony' is a specific and high bar. Congressional hearings on psychedelics are infrequent; written submissions are more common but harder to verify. The finding is genuinely useful for critics. Confidence reduced substantially from 0.82 — the mechanism is plausible but the specific threshold (3 formal testimonies naming this paper) is unlikely to be met on a 12-month timeline given sparse hearing schedules.

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