No psychedelic substance (psilocybin, MDMA, ibogaine, ketamine analogues, or LSD) will be federally rescheduled from Schedule I in the United States before January 1, 2028.

Psilocybin, MDMA, ibogaine, ketamine-like drugs, or LSD will not be moved from Schedule I (the DEA's most restrictive category for illegal drugs with no medical use) to a lower schedule by the US government before January 1, 2028. This matters because as long as they stay Schedule I, doctors cannot prescribe them legally, even in clinical trials, even if they work.

The FDA's MDMA rejection established a high evidentiary bar. Ibogaine cardiac data complicates the strongest remaining near-term candidate. Rescheduling requires formal DEA petition, FDA scheduling recommendation, and DOJ action — alignment of all three is not visible. State-level activity does not move federal schedule. This prediction is well-grounded and the resolve date is nearly 2 years out. Slight confidence reduction from 0.79 to account for low-probability surprise events (e.g., emergency medical designation pathway or executive action), but base case strongly supports this view.