A formal congressional study commission on psychedelic medicine will be established via NDAA or standalone legislation before end of 2026, but no scheduling or prescribing legislation will pass before 2028

Congress will create an official commission to study psychedelic medicine—likely tucked into the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), which funds the military—because both parties like supporting veterans. But nobody will actually change drug laws or let doctors prescribe psychedelics before 2028.

Study commission via NDAA is the lowest-resistance federal action: bipartisan veteran appeal, no DEA scheduling trigger, precedent in prior NDAA psychedelic provisions (FY2024 ibogaine study language). The two-part structure is falsifiable — commission establishment and absence of scheduling legislation are independently verifiable by December 2026 and January 2028 respectively. Original prediction was split across two entries; merged here for parsimony.