The dissociation between extinction and relapse-prevention in the cocaine psilocybin RCT becomes a primary mechanistic research focus, generating an identifiable sub-literature of at least 10 peer-reviewed papers on consolidation vs. extinction within 24 months of publication

A clinical trial combining psilocybin with cocaine addiction treatment will show an unusual result: people's brains learn to stop craving cocaine, but they also don't relapse the way brain science predicts. This contradiction will be so interesting that scientists will publish at least 10 peer-reviewed papers in the next two years trying to explain which parts of the brain are really responsible.

Sharpened to a falsifiable threshold of 10 peer-reviewed papers. The finding is genuinely anomalous: behavioral extinction without relapse prevention implies separate neural substrates (likely prelimbic vs. infralimbic PFC pathways, or BDNF-mediated reconsolidation vs. extinction circuits). This is the type of clean dissociation that generates targeted follow-up. However, 'spawning a new sub-literature' is vague; 10 papers in 24 months is a modest but trackable bar given current publication rates in the field. The 2028 resolve date is appropriate. Confidence modestly reduced to account for replication uncertainty and funding lag.