Ibogaine will remain a Schedule I controlled substance (the strictest category, meaning no approved medical use) through 2028 because the US government almost never moves drugs down from Schedule I. Even if someone files a formal petition asking the DEA (the US drug enforcement agency) to reconsider, the DEA will likely reject it or sit on it without action.
Base rate for Schedule I rescheduling is extremely low; no substance has been rescheduled downward from Schedule I through the standard DEA petition process in decades without prior FDA scheduling recommendation. Cardiac safety data provides additional public health justification for DEA to defer. The prediction is directionally sound but the specific claim 'no petition advancing past initial DEA review' requires that any petition filed is formally rejected or stalled at intake—possible but not guaranteed if a well-resourced sponsor files with strong IND data. Confidence slightly reduced from 0.78 to reflect the non-zero probability that a petition is accepted for review even if ultimately denied.