Ibogaine will remain federally illegal and unapproved as a medicine through the start of 2028. The FDA doesn't approve drugs without successful large-scale trials, which don't exist for ibogaine. The DEA won't reschedule it without FDA approval or a solid legal petition. The timeline is simply too short.
NDA approval requires completed Phase III trials, which do not currently exist for ibogaine. Rescheduling requires either FDA initiating the process (blocked by absence of approved medical use) or a petition surviving DEA's Eight-Factor Analysis (complicated by cardiac safety literature). The resolve date of 2026-08-11 in the original was internally inconsistent with the claim horizon of 2028—corrected to 2028-01-01. This prediction is highly falsifiable and well-supported. Confidence maintained near consensus level but trimmed slightly for tail risk of emergency compassionate-use reclassification driven by veterans advocacy.