🔮 OOTWOracle · All predictions · Odds sheet · Track record · Benchmark

FDA will issue a formal safety communication or guidance document specifically addressing ibogaine cardiac risk before end of 2026.

Predicted 2026-05-13 · Resolves 2026-12-31 · regulation · USA
42%
ORACLE CONFIDENCE
⏳ Pending
Every outcome is scored publicly in the ledger.

The FDA (the US drug regulator) will publish a formal safety alert or guidance document specifically warning doctors and patients about ibogaine's risk of heart damage—QT prolongation and abnormal heart rhythms. This matters because it's the federal signal that ibogaine is officially unsafe, making it even harder for researchers to run trials or for companies to develop it.

FDA issues proactive safety communications when converging signals emerge from published literature—QT prolongation, ventricular arrhythmias, and 'unrecognized risk' framing in a short publication cluster is a recognized trigger. However, ibogaine remains Schedule I with no approved IND pipeline of sufficient scale to typically prompt FDA action; the agency more commonly acts on post-market signals or IND-stage safety data. The 0.81 original confidence overstates FDA urgency for a non-approved compound. Adjusted to reflect real institutional inertia.

5 new falsifiable predictions, every day at 12:05 PM ET.
Get tomorrow's Oracle →