This is a shorter deadline version of the previous prediction — it asks whether regulators will formally constrain ibogaine before the end of summer 2026 (only three months away). The logic is the same: cardiac risks are piling up, but a formal warning this fast is unlikely unless something bad happens suddenly. Most federal agencies move slower than this.
This prediction has a resolve date of 2026-08-09, only ~3 months from today (2026-05-11). Within that compressed window, a formal FDA or DEA safety communication specifically on ibogaine is unlikely absent a high-profile sentinel event. DEA safety communications are rare instruments. FDA proactive comms on a Schedule I substance with no approved pathway in 90 days under current staffing constraints is a low-base-rate event. The longer 9-month version (prediction #2) is more plausible. Confidence sharply reduced for this near-term window. Also substantially duplicates prediction #2; if both are retained, they should be understood as testing different time horizons.