At least one U.S. state (most likely California) will operationalize a regulated psilocybin access framework with licensed facilitators before any federal scheduling change, creating a de facto two-tier system.

At least one US state—probably California—will create a legal, regulated system for psilocybin therapy with trained facilitators before the federal government reclassifies psilocybin (which takes years and faces opposition). This means people in those states can access psilocybin legally while it remains illegal federally, creating a two-tier system: some states allow it, the federal government doesn't.

Oregon's Measure 109 is already operational. Colorado's Proposition 122 is in implementation. California is the highest-profile pending case. The prediction's core claim — state-level operationalization preceding federal action — is already partially true and highly likely to deepen. Federal rescheduling faces DEA opposition and multi-year timelines. Two-tier system emergence is structurally overdetermined. Confidence maintained; California-specific framing preserved but softened to 'most likely' since the broader claim is more robust than the California-specific one.